Evergreen, Conifer and Golden Colorado real estate listings, home buying, selling and relocation information

For the week of Feb 22, 2010 --- Vol. 8, Issue 8
Last Week in Review

"OPINION HAS CAUSED MORE TROUBLE ON THIS LITTLE EARTH THAN PLAGUES..." Voltaire. And lately, there have been a lot of opinions about inflation being voiced from Fed officials, respected economists, and the media. But what does all this talk really mean for our economy and home loan rates? Here's what you need to know.

On Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the prices US consumers pay, came in lower than expected for January. The chart below shows the year-over-year headline CPI at 2.6%, below expectations of 2.8%. What's more, when volatile food and energy are removed from the equation, the "Core" Consumer Price Index was actually negative - and the last time that happened was 28 years ago.

So, if the CPI Report shows that inflation is currently non-existent, why are so many people expressing concern? The reality is that the factors which are currently restraining inflation pressures could easily swing the other way.

In fact, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig recently said, "Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable course. The US Government must make adjustments in its spending and tax programs. It is that simple. If pre-emptive corrective action is not taken regarding the fiscal outlook, then the United States risks precipitating its own next crisis." And part of the crisis Mr. Hoenig is warning of is the possibility of hyperinflation, which occurs when prices rise so quickly that a currency becomes worthless.

Hoenig recently reminded us that he has a framed picture of a 500,000 German mark bill in his office...which would have purchased a home in 1921, but due to sudden inflation, wouldn't purchase a loaf of bread just two years later. Adding to the inflation talk, recent Produce Price Index Reports, which measure inflation at the wholesale level, have shown a trend higher in wholesale inflation. January's report, for example, was significantly higher than expected, due to rising energy costs.

Also chiming in with an opinion, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser made some interesting comments regarding monetary policy and sales of assets that the Fed currently owns. Mr. Plosser stated that the Fed should begin to sell off their stockpile of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) as the economic recovery gains strength. With the Fed MBS buying program ending soon, and the Fed now potentially turning into a seller of MBS, Bond prices and home loan rates will very likely worsen over time. (More on this in the special "Video View" below...don't miss it!)

In other news, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in higher than expected and up from January's reading. The report also showed business activity picking up and business leaders forecasting better economic conditions in the coming months. In addition, Housing Starts for January came in better than expected and at the highest level since July, thanks in large part to the extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Bond prices were unable to improve after falling below an important technical level this week, and as a result, home loan rates ended the week worse than where they began.

MANY PEOPLE ARE ASKING FOR OPINIONS ABOUT WHERE HOME LOAN RATES ARE HEADED...AND WHY. CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR A SPECIAL VIDEO THAT EXPLAINS HOW AND WHY HOME LOAN RATES MOVE...AND WHAT IT MEANS RIGHT NOW.

Forecast for the Week:

While it's hard to say what opinions might be uttered this week, there will definitely be plenty of news in store.

We'll get a look at the housing market with Wednesday's New Home Sales Report and Friday's Existing Home Sales Report. It will be interesting to see if these reports are looking more positive, as many buyers are working to take advantage of the Homebuyer's Tax Credit before it expires this spring. If you want to learn more about this Tax Credit and how it might help you or someone you know - don't hesitate to get in touch with me, I can share all the details and important timelines.

Also this week, we'll get several reads on the health of the economy with Thursday's Durable Goods Report - which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time - and Friday's Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.

Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Report and Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims Report will also be important to watch. Last week's Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers were higher than expected, showing that the labor market is still struggling. The bottom line is that while some of the recent economic reports have had encouraging signs, the economy needs to create jobs and regain consumer confidence before any positive opinions on the economy will become reality.

And as if it won't be a week jam packed full of opinions already, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be weighing in with some thoughts of his own, as he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds ended the week below an important technical level. I'll be watching closely to see if Bonds can reverse course and move higher this week, which would result in an improvement for home loan rates.

The Mortgage Market View...
Rates May Be Headed Up Soon...But Why?

You've heard a lot over the last several months about historically low home loan rates...but lately, you've probably been hearing the buzz that interest rates may be heading up in the near future, due in part to the Fed ending their purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities.

All of this begs the question: How and why do rates move...and what is happening right now?

The answer involves a number of factors and can seem complex. But it doesn't have to be!

To help you understand how interest rates move, take a look at this easy to understand video. You'll learn what the Fed has been doing to keep rates low, as well as the connection between interest rates and Mortgage Backed Securities.

Cindy Emerine
6555 Olympus Dr
Evergreen , CO 80439

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

2010 Census to Begin
WARNING: 2010 Census Cautions from the Better Business Bureau

Be Cautious About Giving Info to Census Workers
by Susan Johns

With the U.S. Census process beginning, the Better Business Bureau (BBB) advises people to be cooperative, but cautious, so as not to become a victim of fraud or identity theft. The first phase of the 2010 U.S.Census is under way as workers have begun verifying the addresses of households across the country. Eventually, more than 140,000 U.S. Census workers will count every person in the United States and will gather information about every person living at each address including name, age, gender, race, and other relevant data.

The big question is - how do you tell the difference between a U.S. Census worker and a con artist? BBB offers the following advice:

** If a U.S. Census worker knocks on your door, they will have a badge, a handheld device, a Census Bureau canvas bag, and a confidentiality notice. Ask to see their identification and their badge before answering their questions. However, you should never invite anyone you don't know into your home.

** Census workers are currently only knocking on doors to verify address information. Do not give your Social Security number, credit card or banking information to anyone, even if they claim they need it for the U.S. Census.REMEMBER, NO MATTER WHAT THEY ASK, YOU REALLY ONLY NEED TO TELL THEM HOW MANY PEOPLE LIVE AT YOUR ADDRESS..

While the Census Bureau might ask for basic financial information, such as a salary range, YOU DON'T HAVE TO ANSWER ANYTHING AT ALL ABOUT YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION.

The Census Bureau will not ask for Social Security, bank account, or credit card numbers, nor will employees solicit donations. Any one asking for that information is NOT with the Census Bureau.

AND REMEMBER, THE CENSUS BUREAU HAS DECIDED NOT TO WORK WITH ACORN ON GATHERING THIS INFORMATION...

No Acorn worker should approach you saying he/she is with the Census Bureau.

Eventually, Census workers may contact you by telephone, mail, or in person at home. However, the Census Bureau will not contact you by Email, so be on the lookout for Email scams impersonating the Census.

Never click on a link or open any attachments in an Email that are supposedly from the U.S. Census Bureau.

PLEASE SHARE THIS INFO WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS!

Local Home Resales
Metro Denver existing home sales rose 5.7 percent between March and April, although April sales fell 21 percent below sales from April 2008. Similarly, the number of homes under contract rose 7.4 percent over-the-month but declined 17.6 percent from the count of homes under contract in the prior year. While the regions existing homes
market clearly has room to recover, a 21 percent year-to-date decline in unsold inventory suggests the market is still moving towards a better balance of home supply and demand. Unfortunately, home prices are likely to remain weak as the market corrects. On a year-to-date basis, the average selling prices for single-family homes
and condominiums have declined 10.9 percent and 14 percent from 2008, respectively.

Home Prices
A separate measure of prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, gave a still-bleak reading on U.S. home prices in March. The first quarter U.S. National Home Price Index fell 19.1 percent over-the-year in what analysts say is the largest decline ever reported. Each of the 20 metropolitan area indices showed a negative annual rate of return in March, with overall rates of decline ranging from 5.5 percent in Denver to 36 percent in Phoenix. Each of the metro indices is down by a double-digit margin from its respective peak, and the Phoenix and Las Vegas indices have fallen more than 50 percent from their peak levels.

Forclosures
April foreclosure filings in Metro Denver rose from March as all but two of the seven counties reported increased foreclosure activity. Despite the increase, foreclosures have declined on a year-to-date basis in each Metro Denver county except Boulder County and the City and County of Broomfield. Foreclosures for the region as a
whole have fallen 14.2 percent year-to-date, but they remain considerably elevated from prior years.

Forbes: Denver on list of 10 cities where Americans are Relocating
Denver Business Journal

Denver is one of 10 U.S. cities on a new Forbes magazine list of cities where Americans are relocating. Denver ranked No. 10 on the list.

Unemployment is on the rise, credit is tight, and consumers arent spending which means they arent picking up and moving much either. Very few places in America saw significant population growth in 2008, Forbes said in its report.

But the buzzing metropolitan area of Denver bucked that trend, Forbes added. Its population increased by 2.17 percent in 2008. In 2007, it
increased by 2.09 percent. In 2008, Denver was the 10th-fastest growing metro area in the U.S.

The Forbes report notes that Denver was listed as the most popular city in America in an October 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center, so
its no surprise that this metro area still attracts newcomers.

It also cites lower unemployment rates in Denver than the national average. The magazine based its list on U.S. Census Bureau data for population growth among metropolitan areas.

New Orleans, at No. 8, is a surprising entry on the list, but Forbes said the hurricane-ravaged Crescent City has been regaining population the last two years and rebuilding efforts are boosting employment.

The 10 cities on Forbes list:
1. Raleigh, N.C.
2. Austin, Texas
3. Charlotte, N.C.
4. Phoenix
5. Dallas
6. San Antonio, Texas
7. Houston
8. New Orleans
9. Atlanta
10. Denver

Denver also recently ranked No. 14 on Forbes list of the best U.S. places to do business.

ALTERNATIVES TO FORCLOSURE:
and forclosure scams to avoid...

With the current housing crisis affecting more and more homeowners, many borrowers having trouble making payments are surprised to learn that foreclosure is not the only option.

The Federal Trade Commission (http://www.
ftc.gov/bcp/menus/consumer/credit/mortgage.
shtm) outlines the following alternatives
to foreclosure, depending on a homeowners
financial situation and existing type of loan:

Reinstatement:
The borrower pays the lender the entire pastdue
amount, plus late fees and penalties, by an agreed-upon date.
Works best for: Solvent borrowers whose payment problems are temporary.

Repayment Plan:
The lender gives the borrower a fixed amount of time to repay past-due payments by adding a portion of them to the regular payment.
Works best for: Solvent borrowers who have missed a small number of payments.

Forbearance:
Mortgage payments are reduced or suspended for an agreed-upon period of time. At the end of that time, the borrower resumes regular payments plus a lump sum or additional partial payments for a number of months to bring the loan current.
Works best for: Solvent borrowers who are facing a temporary income reduction (for example, are on disability but will resume full time work shortly).

Loan Modification:
The borrower and lender agree to permanently
change one or more terms of the mortgage contract to make payments more manageable. Modifications may include reducing the interest rate, extending the term of the loan, or adding missed payments into the loan amount.
Some lenders may forgive or cancel a portion of the debt. Under the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, the forgiven debt may be excluded from income when calculating federal taxes owed, but it still must be reported on the federal tax return.
Works best for: Solvent or insolvent borrowers who are facing long-term income reduction or increased ARM payments.

Sale:
The homeowner sells the property and pays the lender the full amount due on the note. Some lenders may postpone foreclosure proceedings if there is a pending sales contract or if a borrower lets them know they are putting the home on the market.
Works best for: Solvent borrowers whose homes are worth as much as loan balance plus any expenses related to selling the home (real estate agent fees, for example).

Short Sale:
The lender allows the property securing a mortgage or deed of trust to be sold for less
than the existing loan balance. A short sale
is really a form of pre-foreclosure and occurs
when the lien holder agrees to accept less
than the loan amount to avoid the foreclosure
process.
Works best for: Insolvent borrowers and those whose homes are worth less than the amount of the mortgage.

Deed-in-Lieu:
With the lenders agreement, the homeowner
voluntarily transfers property title to the
lender in exchange for cancellation of the remainder of debt. Although the homeowner loses his home and his equity, a deed-in-lieu is less damaging to the borrowers credit than a foreclosure.
Works best for: Borrowers whose loan amount is equal to or greater than what the home would sell for.

Bankruptcy:
Personal bankruptcy is generally considered a last resort because the consequences are far-reaching and long-lasting. A bankruptcy stays on a credit report for 10 years, making it difficult to get credit, buy another home, purchase life insurance, or even get a job. Still, for some, this legal procedure offers a fresh start to someone who cannot repay their debts. If a homeowner has regular income, a Chapter 13 bankruptcy may allow them to keep their property.
Works best for: Insolvent borrowers who cannot pay their debts.

FHA and VA alternatives
Homeowners with an FHA or VA mortgages may have other foreclosure alternatives. Contact FHA (www.fha.gov) or VA(www.homeloans.va.gov) to learn more.

Be aware of scams
The Federal Trade Commission also advises
homeowners to be aware of the following
scams:
The foreclosure prevention specialist: A phone counselor charges high fees to make phone calls or complete paperwork that the homeowner could easily do for himself. Some of these companies use
the words HOPE or HOPE NOW in their names in order to confuse borrowers who are looking for assistance from the free 888-995-HOPE hotline. (Buyers interested in this program can learn more at http://www.coloradoforeclosurehotline.org. The
Colorado hotline is 1-877-601-HOPE.)
The lease/buy back: Homeowners are deceived into signing over the deed to their home to a scam artist who tells them they can remain in the house as a renter and eventually buy it back. Usually, the terms make the buy-back impossible, the homeowner gets evicted, and the purchaser.

Thursday, April 23, 2009
RealtyTrac: Denver foreclosures down 46% from a year ago
Denver Business Journal - by Mark Harden

RealtyTrac: Colorado 9th in April foreclosures
LDS church helps members with bills, jobs, mortgage payments
N.C. foreclosures fall 15% in April
RealtyTrac: Tennessee foreclosure ranking drops to No. 24 in April
Dayton-area foreclosures rise in April
Foreclosure filings in the Denver metro area declined nearly 46 percent in the first three months of 2009 from the same period a year ago, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc.

The Denver-Aurora area had the 60th-highest foreclosure-filing rate among 203 large U.S. urban areas in the first quarter of the year, according to figures released late Tuesday by RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based marketer of foreclosure properties, in its Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report.

A total of 7,250 properties in the area were in some stage of the foreclosure process in the first three months of the year, or one per every 144 households, RealtyTrac said. That was down 22.28 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 and down 45.77 percent from the first quarter of 2008, it said.

The Boulder area, which RealtyTrac lists separately, ranked 122nd out of 203 cities.

Boulder had 356 properties with foreclosure filings in the first quarter, or one in 347, down 4.04 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 and down 20.18 percent from the first quarter of 2008, RealtyTrac said.

The highest ranking Colorado city on the Q1 2009 list was Colorado Springs at No. 57, with one in 136 properties in foreclosure.

The company said the 26 U.S. cities with the highest foreclosure-filing rates were concentrated in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., topped the national list with one out of every 22 properties in foreclosure, followed by Merced, Calif. (1 in 24), Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. (1 in 26), Stockton, Calif. (1 in 27) and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (1 in 28).

RealtyTrac listed 203 metro areas with populations of 200,000 or more.

The new national foreclosure-filing numbers paint a picture of concentrated problems in a relatively small number of hard hit areas, James Saccacio, RealtyTrac CEO, said in a statement.

Sales activity appears to be increasing in some of these markets as home prices have fallen to levels that are attractive to first-time homebuyers and investors, he added. While we expect many of these metro areas to continue to experience high levels of foreclosure activity throughout 2009, we also expect to see other markets rise up the ranks as unemployment rates surge throughout the country.

RealtyTracs metro-areas report parallels its much publicized state-by-state foreclosure rankings.

The companys Q1 ranking for Colorado showed the state ranked 12th in the nation, down nearly 14 percent from the previous quarter and down more than 33 percent from the first quarter of 2008.

Colorado officials for years have disputed the states high position on RealtyTracs lists, particularly in 2006 when Colorados foreclosure rate was described as the worst in the nation for nearly a year.

State officials have argued that the way Colorados public trustees report foreclosure data leads private entities like RealtyTrac to overcount foreclosures here. RealtyTrac has said its methodology is fair.

State lawmakers this session passed a bill that would standardize the way Colorado reports foreclosure numbers. Gov. Bill Ritter signed it on April 3; it takes effect 90 days after the end of this years legislative session. Assuming the session ends in May, the law would become effective in August.

Renée McGaw contributed reporting.